Will La Niña be weaker than expected? Here’s what it would mean for Texas and its farmers (2024)

A La Niña-influenced weather pattern that was forecast to develop this summer could be milder than expected — and that would be good news for people who live in Texas, especially those who depend on the weather for their livelihoods.

Fifth-generation farmer Todd Kimbrell vividly remembers the last time a strong La Niña altered weather patterns in Texas, when an extended five-year dry spell between 2006 and 2011 wiped out crops.

“That was really tough,” Kimbrell said. “It’s really hard to make a crop. It’s really hard to sustain a business when you don’t get rain … when everything you have depends on it.”

That’s why farmers and ranchers were concerned this year when meteorologists forecast a strong La Niña. They expected it would fuel a strong hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and lead to drought conditions in parts of Texas.

Instead, this year’s La Niña has yet to develop. There’s still a 70% chance of a La Niña developing between August and October; and a 79% chance it will persist late into the winter, according to NOAA. But even if it does, it might not fuel the devastating storm season forecasters expected. Additionally, with a wetter spring and summer, the potential for drought could be less devastating.

La Niña, the “cold phase” of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, occurs when sea surface temperatures cool in the Pacific Ocean, at least a half-degree below normal for several months. How warm or cool the ocean surface temperature gets determines the severity of an incoming La Niña or El Niño, which is triggered by the warm phase of the cycle.

Meteorologists use simulations and multiple climate models to have more comprehensive forecasts for an El Niño or La Niña phase. However, a warming Pacific Ocean complicates these efforts. According to NOAA meteorologist Cory Baggett, the unusually warm Pacific waters are making it more challenging to predict weather patterns based solely on the ENSO cycle.

What does this mean for Texas?

Even though this cycle happens in the Pacific Ocean, nearly 3,000 miles away, it can have a significant long-term impact on weather patterns for the state.

Among the impacts of La Niña:

• Warmer and drier winters with increased risk of wildfires.
• Increased hurricane activity.
• Drought conditions that could wipe out crops.

Even though La Niña can increase the threat of hurricanes, the latest July forecasts suggest a less severe impact this year.

In terms of droughts, farmers are still recovering. They’ve faced La Niña-fueled droughts before, and more hot, dry, weather could be a significant problem for them.

Crop insurance is a potential safety net for farmers. While La Niña can exacerbate drought conditions, crop insurance can help protect farmers from losses.

“Our farmers are having to deal with the recourse of past adverse weather losses and the amount of insurance that they can buy,” said Bree Nelson, a crop insurance agent for West Texas.

Although July brought some relief, as a wetter-than-average month, the return of 100-degree days brings concerns about irrigation for crops in the coming months.

The recent El Niño phase was “fairly strong” for Texas according to Texas A&M atmospheric scientist John Nielsen-Gammon. However, that doesn’t mean the La Niña will match its counterpart’s severity.

“El Niño is not like a pendulum where it’s automatically swinging back and forth with the same intensity,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “It’s more like a pendulum with a toddler. The weather can come along and throw things off and affect things dramatically, especially in the springtime.”

When NOAA announced in May the upcoming hurricane season could be the most prolific in history, it was in part because of the predicted La Niña cycle.

La Niña’s colder ocean surface temperature influences hurricane activity by reducing wind shear, allowing storms to intensify more easily, Nielsen-Gammon said.

Even though hurricane season is milder than initially forecast, it still could be more severe than average, Nielsen-Gammon said.

The impact of La Niña varies depending on the region, typically affecting the southern part of Texas more intensely, said Jennifer Dunn, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Fort Worth.

Farmers and ranchers are closely monitoring the climate cycles to prepare for crop yields and to maintain their cattle. Kimbrell has about a dozen different weather models and apps he looks at regularly.

Nelson, the insurance agent, understands why Kimbrell is so focused on those apps and models.

“A farmer’s greatest foe in the great state of Texas is weather,” she said.